Friday, July 21, 2017
Thursday, July 20, 2017
My god, I just found a reason for sociologists to study intro economics.
Next Big What - people don't exercise more even if you pay them to go to the gym. But the study has a big problem:
690 people who joined a private gym in an unidentified Midwestern city from September 2015 to April 2016 were divided into four groups. A control group received a $30 gift card after six weeks regardless of attendance.
The others received gift cards of either $30 or $60, or a gift worth about $30, only if they went to the gym at least nine days in their first six weeks of membership.
The study noted new gym members were “extremely overoptimistic about how often they will visit the gym, and there is a fast decline in their visit frequency over the first few months of membership.” On average, they said they’d go about three times a week, but started off going twice a week and after a couple of months were exercising just once a week.
Differences between people who were and weren’t paid to work out were “quite modest,” the researchers wrote.
The paid participants went, on average, 0.14 more times per week than the control group. That difference largely disappeared after the six-week program ended.
The problem is, your study only found that their reservation price for going to the gym is higher than $30/9 or $60/9.
If you'd paid them $50 per gym visit you'd have found more people going.
This is such a simple error, from the standpoint of bloody first-year bullshit economics, that I wonder why every single sociological/psychological study has been structured to give out such a shitty low reward.
Wednesday, July 19, 2017
The market story of the past month was the massive puking of tech stocks, and the supposed rebalancing into banks. The idea was, interest rates are going up, so you want to own banks, and tech has "gone too far", so you have to puke tech.
Well, compare and contrast:
CNBC - Netflix smashes earnings estimates.
Marketcrotch - banks' earnings languish due to the inherent stupidity of the elite.
And now QQQ is advancing into blue sky again, while owning bank stocks now makes you look as stupid as the coke-snorting arrogant bourgeois morons who are losing a fortune for these banks on their prop desks.
Why was the June thesis stupid?
Because since 2002, you would have made a goddamn fortune if you'd owned AAPL, GOOG, NFLX and AMZN (and some biotech, railways and the consumer leaders, like DIS, MCD, MC, SBUX etc).
Meanwhile, even in the 2004-2006 heyday of banking ponzi, where they literally were allowed to print money, you wouldn't have made anything owning the big banks.
Past performance is not an indicator of future success; but it is a pretty damn good bet in the case where entire industry #1 has been a business failure for decades, while entire industry #2 has made the USA the undisputed world leader in 21st century internet technology.
Don't invest in banks, because they themselves don't know how to invest.* Invest in tech because that'll always be the future.
* - actually, Canadian banks are good granny stocks. So Canadian banks are okay.
Tuesday, July 18, 2017
ibankcoin - John McAfee will eat his own dick on national television.
Unless, of course, bitcoin goes to $500,000 in 3 years, which ha ha, ha ha ha ha, haha ha ha hahaha.
And despite his going flaccid after ten years of meth enemas, he is still an interested party, since his new business venture (ha ha) is a bitcoin miner (haha, ha ha ha, hahaha), which is as close as you can get to an undergraduate-level economics free-entry zero-profit model of a company.
I literally cannot wait for Izabella Kaminska's reaction to this.
Monday, July 17, 2017
Some loony libertopian website - AK-47 manufacturer builds killer robot.
No, don't click through.
It can still be defeated the way you defeat real Russians - give it a liter of cheap methanol-laced sink cleaner and the keys to a shitty Lada with no ABS and a bunch of stupid religious icons on the dashboard to convince the driver he's invincible.
Bob Lefsetz - Kid Rock for Senate.
Wait, what now?
The Democrats have to get a new strategy, just bitching about the right wing isn’t working. It’s like a Gen-X’er yelling at a boomer, telling him Pearl Jam is the best band ever and the boomer shrugging his shoulders. Better yet, a millennial raving about Migos to both of those elder groups. You don’t win by yelling at somebody, changing hearts and minds is a long term process that the Republicans have been good at, with the Federalist Society and right wing talk radio and Fox News, and now the Democrats believe they can sway the converted in an instant, by telling them how inane and stupid they are?
Not gonna happen.
Meanwhile, Kid Rock, i.e. Bob Ritchie, is not stupid.
This is one of the great publicity stunts of this era. A guy who’s in his forties, who works in a moribund format, i.e. rock, suddenly got the whole nation’s attention when that’s nearly impossible to do. I don’t care if he runs for Senate or he doesn’t, that’s not the point, he can decide later. Kinda like Trump, he just wanted your love and attention, but he tapped into something that appealed to people. As does Rock… It’s about the underclass celebrating their uniqueness. Yes, it is a dying tribe, the white uneducated blue collar workers, but the truth is Rock has always employed a multiracial band which is better rehearsed than most and he gives 110% at his shows and if you think you can convince his audience otherwise, you must be a Democrat.
Meanwhile, Rock is smart. Literally. And upper middle class. His father was a Lincoln dealer. It’s all an act. Sit down with him long enough and you’ll find he’s almost a Democrat, it’s just that he’s got a brother living on welfare who doesn’t work and it drives him nuts. All I’m saying is if you’re bitching about the rube, you’ve missed the point. Rock is smarter than Trump, and he doesn’t want to be in politics, but he wants to sell tickets, in an era where I told someone I was going to Dodger Stadium tomorrow to see the Eagles and they were unaware they were playing.
Sunday, July 16, 2017
Get back Jojo - a look at gold and silver sentiment. Lots of charts and stuff.
I'd remind him that this is the first time in a while that silver hasn't made a lower low in 18 months.
And that CoT drop from 0.55 to 0.12 only resulted in a 20% drop in price.
Gasp! Jojo apparently said something bad about Otto Rock in his mailer this week, and now Otto's all pissy pants!
FWIW, I've never found Jojo to be arrogant, pompous, or an asshole. He also doesn't reccie his subscribers into stocks that get delisted right off the fucking TSX-V and almost lose all their properties in a power struggle just because he likes their indigenous community, unlike certain other newsletter writers I could mention.
Then again, Jojo was part of the "massive repudiation of debt" crowd 4 or 5 years ago. Though apparently he's gotten better.
Anyway, 2 bits of news:
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. M1 & M2, tax withholding, rail, and Johnson Redbook all look fine; and of course rates are going up, there's this thing called the Fed.
Marketcrotch - financial ETFs see worst day in 2 months after weak bank results. Here was everyone dumping NASDAQ and piling into banking, because that's just what you do when rates are going up. But, as they've now learned, US banks are a fucking joke, just like they were in 2004-6. You can't make money on them because they squander all their winnings on prop trading. Good to see there are still idiots in banking.