Thursday, February 16, 2017

And some more charts, while I still can....


SPY:


Six white candles in a row, RSI 78, means this is overbought.

Then again, (1) Wooh Trump, (2) the US averages did spend two entire years consolidating sideways, right?

So this is not evidence of a blow-off top, no matter which doomer blogger you read. But it's definitely getting stupid. A 24 PE is stupid.

And no, macroeconomics says that massive tax breaks don't improve GDP when unemployment is at NAIRU. Especially not when they're funded by taking money away from the poor. That's actually contractionary, not expansionary.

Though portfolio theory does say that would have a positive wealth effect for both stocks and bonds.

QQQ:


QQQ is looking even more frothy, with 9 white candles in a row, and RSI >82. Then again, most of that comes from AAPL, which gapped up at the start of the month and continues to run away from the market. So maybe the froth will go on.

Yes, trade economics says that when the world trade and technology hegemon becomes belligerent, the most powerful US tech leaders and innovators will necessarily profit. Cuz I said so.

Trannies:


If there is a blow-off top forming, you have to ask what should happen to it the moment that $TRAN confirms it after a 2-month consolidation. Dow theory says this'll make the blow-off gather steam. We'll have to see if the $TRAN breakout holds.

Banks:


This is utter bullshit. Eliminating bank regulation won't make them more profitable.

How do I know?

Because Clinton eliminated all bank regulation in the 90s, and 1) it took bank equities several years before they went on their run, 2) that mid-2000s run was actually not worth investing in because there were better places to be (potash, mining, oil, US consumer, EMs - I can list you 100 stocks and ETFs that had a much better return than any major bank), and 3) it turned out that the banks were only running Ponzi schemes, so that profitability was only an illusion.

So the >20% advance we've already seen in the banks is already bullshit, and any continued bullshit from here on is basically a big red flag indicating where the next crash is going to be.

Gold chart


Let's see if Blogger lets me post a gold chart again:



Ah, there we go.

I wanted to post it to show how gold keeps dipping to the Bollinger mean, and at the end of the last month to the SMA(50), just like clockwork.

This is a very dependable advance.

But I guess it'll move slower as it approaches $1250-$1255, which is an important point on the previous downtrend.

Then again, maybe not.

But I love how new buying keeps driving gold back up when it hits all these little technical averages.


Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Some news


Well, one midterm left, and it's financial economics, which should be no problem.

Meanwhile, I've got my RSS transferred off of GReader, which doesn't seem to work on any of my devices at all anymore. So here's news!:


Calculated Risk - retail sales increased 0.4% in January. Because Trump!

NDD - real nonsupervisory wages have declined over the past year. BTW, I'm sure he and I agree that Trump is a moron who'll destroy America, but I think in his case it might be irrationally affecting his economic outlook.

Calculated Risk - LA port traffic surges in January. Because Trump, I guess. Oh well, better keep an eye on inventories....

NDD - consumer fundamentals nowcast. Again, I think the Trumpocalypse is colouring his analysis.

Bloomberg - Morgan Stanley sees a bright decade for China stocks. That's nice and all, but it begs the question: Are these the same analysts who said last year they expected global GDP to collapse by 5%?



Sunday, February 12, 2017

Some Trump charts


New Deal Demoncrat - some Sunday thoughts. Wherein he reproduces a whole pile of interesting charts about Trump.

These two are interesting from a market perspective:



Consumer spending has picked up because everyone expects Trump to give them a free pony.



People have more confidence because, again, free ponies.

And I hate the strident wharrgarbl of the extreme left as much as anyone else, but the fact is that you can't beat statistics:



Yup, the more sexist and racist you are, the more likely it is you voted Trump.

Other bloggers are gutless pantywaist sissies who don't like posting about Trump for fear their subscribership will drop. Not me.