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Monday, July 10, 2017

Bit of comment, bit of news


I'd like to see if this AM's strong morning spike in GDX lasts through the day, cos gold's RSI is <30 and gold has been stuck on the -2SD Bollinger for long enough. If GDX claws back, then now's a good time to get in.

Anyway, one bit of reading to pass on:


Worthwhile Canadian Initiative - never mind the bollocks, here's the Phillips curve. He makes a very simple point that makes me think that anyone in central banking who even talks about the Phillips curve anymore must really have no fucking clue what they're doing:

As a lot of people in different countries have noticed, the observed Phillips Curve now looks very flat. Certainly a lot flatter than it did in the past.

And I've been saying of course it looks flat; that's because central banks are now targeting inflation and were doing all sorts of different daft things in the past. The whole point of targeting 2% inflation is to try to make the observed Phillips Curve as flat as possible at 2%.

Obviously. I mean, no matter what the unemployment rate, the Fed is targeting inflation of 2% or less (let's not beat around the bush, their target isn't symmetric). Thus, u is a straight line at i<.02.

Add rational expectations, and people now rationally expect the Fed to raise rates when i>.02, which is rationally expected (whether or not it's true) to strangle inflation growth at 2% by causing unemployment.

Makes you wonder why anyone would even talk about the Phillips curve anymore.

Oh wait, they're trying to justify rate rises so they can strangle the working class yet more while raising the rentiers' profit on owning capital.


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